In this feature, IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI explores the current administration’s determined bid to navigate the struggle between its long-term reform goals and the widespread calls for immediate relief across the country
A doctor recognised the urgent need for surgery on a patient, believing it was crucial for his survival and recovery.
However, as he commenced the procedure, the physician employed inappropriate tools and techniques, carelessly slicing into the patient’s flesh. Blood gushed from the wound like a ruptured dam, drenching the sterile sheets. The patient, writhing in agony, screamed for relief.
But instead of reassessing the situation or altering his approach, the doctor maintained an unwavering demeanour, asking the patient to remain calm.
He claimed the discomfort was a necessary step toward a healthier future. “What if I don’t survive to see those benefits?” the patient asked desperately.
The doctor, unfazed, pressed on, insisting that his flawed methods were ultimately for the greater good.
This analogy, many believe, strikingly reflects the current plight of Nigerians under the present administration. But it wasn’t all gloomy in the beginning. How did the country find itself in this downward spiral? History can certainly provide insight.
Upon assuming office in May 2023, President Bola Tinubu pledged to rescue Nigeria, from the grip of economic decline, deepening hardship, and rising insecurity.
“Our administration shall govern on your behalf but never rule over you. We shall consult and dialogue but never dictate. We are here to further mend and heal this nation, not tear and injure it,” the president stated at his inauguration.
However, 16 months later, Nigerians have found little relief. Much like a patient in distress, they have been battered by poorly conceived reforms and decisions, despite clear signs of economic strain. Over the past year, citizens have struggled with skyrocketing fuel prices, surging inflation, escalating food costs, and high unemployment.
Tinubu’s administration began with the highly anticipated removal of the fuel subsidy and deregulation of the forex market. Initially, many believed the savings would be transparently injected into productive ventures that would benefit the average citizen in the interim, with the government reducing waste and closing loopholes to alleviate the economic strain. But these hopes have largely been dashed, as the effects of the subsidy removal remain difficult to trace, leaving many Nigerians to endure worsening hardship.
As a result, the prices of goods and services have surged dramatically. According to the National Bureau of Statistics monthly inflation report, the average price of commodities rose steadily, increasing from 22.41 per cent in May to 28.92 per cent in December 2023. Additionally, the headline inflation rate climbed to 32.15 per cent in August 2024, up from 25.80 per cent in August 2023.
The NBS also reported a sharp rise in the price of basic commodities. The average price of 1kg of brown beans increased by 27 per cent year-on-year, from N545.61 in August 2022 to N692.95 in August 2023. By July 2024, it had soared to N2,444.81, marking an astounding 262.98 per cent increase. Currently, brown beans sell for an average of N3,500 per kilogram, with a full bag costing around N210,000.
Similarly, the price of a kilogram of yam jumped by 42.80 per cent year-on-year, rising from N403.65 in August 2022 to N576.39 in August 2023, and further to N1,802.84 by July 2024.
Garri followed a similar trend, with its price increasing by 49.16 per cent year-on-year, from N305.92 in August 2022 to N456.32 in August 2023, reaching N1,151.79 in July 2024. Currently, garri costs N1,200 per kilogram, according to NBS data. Disturbingly, the price of 1kg of cooking gas has also surged to N1,500.
Even more concerning is the significant depreciation of the naira, which now exchanges at an average of N1,700 per dollar, down from N460 in May 2023. Interest rates have skyrocketed to 26.75 per cent, compared to 11 per cent over the past two years. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3 per cent in Q1 2024, up from 5.0 per cent in Q3 2023, further exacerbating economic challenges.
Despite the country’s Gross Domestic Product remaining around $472bn, according to World Bank estimates, Nigeria’s debt has ballooned to N127tn, according to the Debt Management Office as of June 2024.
This rising debt, coupled with dwindling oil revenues, has severely constrained the government’s ability to fund critical infrastructure and development projects, forcing an increased reliance on borrowing.
Nigeria also struggles on the security front, as banditry worsens daily, particularly in the North-West and North-Central regions, where attacks on farmers, schools, and rampant kidnappings for ransom have escalated, despite the military’s determined efforts. The escalating insecurity in these regions, which produce more than 50 per cent of the country’s staple foods, including rice, beans, maize, and yam, has further aggravated Nigeria’s food crisis.
Defending the Tinubu administration’s tough policy decisions, Vice President Kashim Shettima recently noted that the precarious state of the nation at the start of the current administration necessitated drastic and unpalatable measures to rescue the economy from total collapse.
Shettima stated, “In our quest for economic recovery, we must recognise that we are not here to cut corners. The path we have chosen is necessary. Indeed, His Excellency, President Bola Tinubu, has made the difficult but necessary choices to ensure Nigeria’s long-term stability and prosperity are never in doubt. He has chosen a path that, although demanding, promises to save our nation from economic downfall.”
However, in an interview with Saturday PUNCH, the Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, explained that if the Tinubu administration had built substantial foreign reserves before floating the naira, the country could have avoided its current economic challenges.
He stated that the fuel subsidy issue might not end anytime soon because it was essentially tied to the exchange rate, while the government’s forex market deregulation is an incomplete reform.
According to him, as long as the exchange rate remains unstable, the re-emergence of fuel subsidies is inevitable, regardless of how many times the government claims to have removed them.
Dr Teriba argued that the current FX challenges would not offer Nigerians any long-term benefits unless the government reworked its reforms.
“The losses that Nigerians suffer daily from exchange rates do not provide any long-term benefits. For a country to float its currency, it must have built sufficient foreign reserve buffers. However, we have floated for more than a year now, and the reserves have remained inadequate, which explains why the exchange rate has kept fluctuating, exposing Nigerians to additional suffering.
“I think the government should concentrate on reversing that loss by building foreign reserves to stabilise the exchange rate,” the economist suggested.
Similarly, the National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties, Chief Peter Ameh, observed that the current administration seemed caught between its determination to implement essential but tough economic reforms and the public’s urgent demand for relief.
To successfully navigate this challenging terrain, Ameh stressed that the government must deliver tangible solutions to ease the suffering of Nigerians. These should include cash transfer programmes, subsidies, and targeted interventions designed to soften the immediate impact of the reforms.
He emphasised that to avoid the failures of past relief efforts, such as the National Social Investment Programme, the Anchor Borrower Scheme, and conditional cash transfer programmes—many of which were derailed by corruption and inefficiency—the government must prioritise transparency and accountability. This can be achieved through data-driven distribution methods supported by technology, ensuring that resources reach those in need without being siphoned off.
Ameh pointed out that the administration’s inability to address the pressing economic challenges has fueled widespread discontent among the population.
For Nigeria to overcome its current economic woes, Ameh argued, the government must place the well-being of its citizens at the heart of its reform agenda. This requires ensuring that policies are people-centred and inclusive, while also fostering transparency and promoting economic stability.
He concluded by urging the government to employ effective governance, sound policy-making, and active engagement with stakeholders to strike a delicate balance between long-term reform goals and the people’s immediate need for relief.
In his submission, Professor Uche Uwaleke, a Professor of Capital Market at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, suggested that the administration should rethink its agenda by prioritising food security to ensure that food prices decrease while continuing the implementation of reforms.
He believes efforts in this direction should include tackling insecurity through community policing, providing access to inputs and credit for farmers, and improving rural roads that link farms to markets.
This, he noted, should be done in conjunction with state and local governments. “By doing so, the adverse impact of the reforms will be significantly cushioned,” he stated.
Moreover, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria and National Chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum, Mamman Mike Osumah, urged Nigerians to give the current administration more time to address the prevailing issues.
He pointed out that it was hypocritical for Nigerians to protest against Tinubu’s government after electing it constitutionally to govern them.
“There is a saying that you reap whatever you sow. You will recall that not long ago, Nigerians went to the polls to elect the current political leaders. For us to now hear Nigerians crying in protest against the current administration is hypocritical,” Osumah said.
He noted that the #EndBadGovernance protest highlighted some complaints, which the president promised to address.
According to Osumah, the National Assembly, having identified inadequacies in the constitution, has also begun amending it.
He believes these steps, particularly the latest cabinet reshuffling by the president, aim to reduce deficiencies in governance that have led to hardship, suffering, and hunger.
“The government has also acknowledged the security challenges, especially terrorism and banditry, with a strong promise to ensure they are curtailed. Based on all these, I think it would be prudent to give the government more time,” he stated.
President Bola Tinubu faces a “race against time” as he tackles multiple urgent challenges. Key economic reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, have yet to provide relief to the majority of Nigerians. Instead, these policies have contributed to inflation and rising living costs, heightening public discontent. It is imperative for the Tinubu administration to stabilise the economy and address these issues before the negative impacts become further entrenched. The success of these efforts will be revealed in due course.